AGI Arrival Forecast

Updated 2026-08-10

August 17, 2031
-45 Days

A rare, independently verified scientific milestone (AI-designed functional bacteriophages) and OpenAI's first admission of possible Critical-tier cyber capability in Astra outweighed self-reported Chinese benchmark claims and a leadership reshuffle at Google DeepMind, producing a net moderate acceleration.

Recent Volatility

Why did it change?

History Log

2026-08-03 Update-67d Net Shift
2026-07-26 Update-25d Net Shift
2026-07-19 Update0d Net Shift

Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max release was evaluated as a moderate signal of continued open-weight/Chinese model competitiveness, discounted due to reliance on self-reported benchmarks.